Disparities in COVID-19 hospitalizations and mortality among black and Hispanic patients: cross-sectional analysis from the greater Houston metropolitan area.

BACKGROUND: Disparate racial/ethnic burdens of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may be attributable to higher susceptibility to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) or to factors such as differences in hospitalization and care provision. METHODS: In our cross-sectional analysis of lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases from a tertiary, eight-hospital healthcare system across greater Houston, multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to evaluate hospitalization and mortality odds for non-Hispanic Blacks (NHBs) vs. non-Hispanic Whites (NHWs) and Hispanics vs. non-Hispanics. RESULTS: Between March 3rd and July 18th, 2020, 70,496 individuals were tested for SARS-CoV-2; 12,084 (17.1%) tested positive, of whom 3536 (29.3%) were hospitalized. Among positive cases, NHBs and Hispanics were significantly younger than NHWs and Hispanics, respectively (mean age NHBs vs. NHWs: 46.0 vs. 51.7 years; p < 0.001 and Hispanic vs. non-Hispanic: 44.0 vs. 48.7 years; p < 0.001). Despite younger age, NHBs (vs. NHWs) had a higher prevalence of diabetes (25.2% vs. 17.6%; p < 0.001), hypertension (47.7% vs. 43.1%; p < 0.001), and chronic kidney disease (5.0% vs. 3.3%; p = 0.001). Both minority groups resided in lower median income (median income [USD]; NHBs vs. NHWs: 63,489 vs. 75,793; p < 0.001, Hispanic vs. non-Hispanic: 59,104 vs. 68,318; p < 0.001) and higher population density areas (median population density [per square mile]; NHBs vs. NHWs: 3257 vs. 2742; p < 0.001, Hispanic vs. non-Hispanic: 3381 vs. 2884; p < 0.001). In fully adjusted models, NHBs (vs. NHWs) and Hispanics (vs. non-Hispanic) had higher likelihoods of hospitalization, aOR (95% CI): 1.42 (1.24-1.63) and 1.61 (1.46-1.78), respectively. No differences were observed in intensive care unit (ICU) utilization or treatment parameters. Models adjusted for demographics, vital signs, laboratory parameters, hospital complications, and ICU admission vital signs demonstrated non-significantly lower likelihoods of in-hospital mortality among NHBs and Hispanic patients, aOR (95% CI): 0.65 (0.40-1.03) and 0.89 (0.59-1.31), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our data did not demonstrate racial and ethnic differences in care provision and hospital outcomes. Higher susceptibility of racial and ethnic minorities to SARS-CoV-2 and subsequent hospitalization may be driven primarily by social determinants.

Impact of mRNA vaccines in curtailing SARS-CoV-2 infection and disability leave utilisation among healthcare workers during the COVID-19 pandemic: cross-sectional analysis from a tertiary healthcare system in the Greater Houston metropolitan area.

OBJECTIVES: We provide an account of real-world effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines among healthcare workers (HCWs) at a tertiary healthcare system and report trends in SARS-CoV-2 infections and subsequent utilisation of COVID-19-specific short-term disability leave (STDL). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Summary data on 27 291 employees at a tertiary healthcare system in the Greater Houston metropolitan area between 15 December 2020 and 5 June 2021. The initial 12-week vaccination programme period (15 December 2020 to 6 March 2021) was defined as a rapid roll-out phase. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: At the pandemic onset, HCW testing and surveillance was conducted where SARS-CoV-2-positive HCWs were offered STDL. Deidentified summary data of SARS-CoV-2 infections and STDL utilisation among HCWs were analysed. Prevaccination and postvaccination trends in SARS-CoV-2 positivity and STDL utilisation rates were evaluated. RESULTS: Updated for 5 June 2021, 98.2% (n=26 791) of employees received a full or partial dose of one of the approved mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. The vaccination rate during the rapid roll-out phase was approximately 3700 doses/7 days. The overall mean weekly SARS-CoV-2 positivity rates among HCWs were significantly lower following vaccine roll-out (2.4%), compared with prevaccination period (11.8%, p<0.001). An accompanying 69.8% decline in STDL utilisation was also observed (315 to 95 weekly leaves). During the rapid roll-out phase, SARS-CoV-2 positivity rate among Houston Methodist HCWs declined by 84.3% (8.9% to 1.4% positivity rate), compared with a 54.7% (12.8% to 5.8% positivity rate) decline in the Houston metropolitan area. CONCLUSION: Despite limited generalisability of regional hospital-based studies-where factors such as the emergence of viral variants and population-level vaccine penetrance may differ-accounts of robust HCW vaccination programmes provide important guidance for sustaining a critical resource to provide safe and effective care for patients with and without COVID-19 across healthcare systems.

Is the worst of the COVID-19 global pandemic yet to come? Application of financial mathematics as candidate predictive tools.

The Elliott Wave principle is a time-honored, oft-used method for predicting variations in the financial markets. It is based on the notion that human emotions drive financial decisions. In the fight against the COVID-19 global pandemic, human emotions are similarly decisive, for instance in that they determine one's willingness to be vaccinated, and/or to follow preventive measures including the personal wearing of masks, the application of social distancing protocols, and frequent handwashing. On this basis, we postulated that the Elliott Wave Principle may similarly be used to predict the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. We demonstrated that this method reproduces the data pattern for various countries and the world (daily new cases). Potential scenarios were then extrapolated, from the best-case corresponding to a rapid, full vaccination of the population, to the utterly disastrous case of slow vaccination, and poor adherence to preventive protocols.